Working Papers
"Oh What Fools these Populists Be"
Political Economic Research Institute (PERI) Undergraduate Summer Fellowship (Summer 2020)
Abstract:
Immigration and foreign efficiency have increased domestic labor market competition and displaced native workers. Populist rhetoric identifies immigrants, outsourcing, and trade deficits as the causes for voter’s socioeconomic anxieties. This populist rationale gained political traction in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. The support from voters for a populist candidate, who would win the election, has a tendency to place an irrational label upon these voters’ economic view. Critics of populism have charged these voters with acting irrationally given the long-term, beneficial impacts of globalization for workers in the U.S. This study questions these charges by developing a spatially weighted regression to predict, at the county level, the proportion of populist votes in the 2016 U.S. general election. The results suggest that voters in support of the populist candidate viewed protectionism as a reasonable solution to their immediate economic needs and concerns. Such a conclusion lifts the irrational label and replaces it with sympathetic views for populist voters in 2016.
Political Economic Research Institute (PERI) Undergraduate Summer Fellowship (Summer 2020)
Abstract:
Immigration and foreign efficiency have increased domestic labor market competition and displaced native workers. Populist rhetoric identifies immigrants, outsourcing, and trade deficits as the causes for voter’s socioeconomic anxieties. This populist rationale gained political traction in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. The support from voters for a populist candidate, who would win the election, has a tendency to place an irrational label upon these voters’ economic view. Critics of populism have charged these voters with acting irrationally given the long-term, beneficial impacts of globalization for workers in the U.S. This study questions these charges by developing a spatially weighted regression to predict, at the county level, the proportion of populist votes in the 2016 U.S. general election. The results suggest that voters in support of the populist candidate viewed protectionism as a reasonable solution to their immediate economic needs and concerns. Such a conclusion lifts the irrational label and replaces it with sympathetic views for populist voters in 2016.
"A Brief Empirical Note on Populism and Liberalism"
Political Economic Research Institute (PERI) Ph.D. Summer Fellowship (Summer 2021)
Abstract:
What effect does populism have on liberal institutions? The causes and effects of populism, a backlash of a valid or illegitimate failure by the government to regulate and reform, are a growing concern among political economists. The consensus in the literature is that populism poses a threat to liberal institutions, but there is less consensus on the channel of that influence. This paper contributes to this literature by empirically investigating the specific impact of populism on liberal institutions using a decomposition of the Fraser Economic Freedom of the World Index using a random effects model. The dataset spans 24 years, from 1990 to 2014, for 171 parliamentary elections from 37 democratic nations. I find that populism, as measured by far-right or far-left parties and European Union skepticism, reduces the overall size of government and the extent of government regulation, as measured by a decomposition of the Frasier Economic Freedom of the World Index. Far-left parties also induce more international trade, while far-right parties induce more deregulation. Populism, however, does tend to erode the quality of legal systems and property rights. Depending on political and economic circumstances, this paper finds that the effect of populism on liberal institutions appears to require more nuance than the consensus view.
Political Economic Research Institute (PERI) Ph.D. Summer Fellowship (Summer 2021)
Abstract:
What effect does populism have on liberal institutions? The causes and effects of populism, a backlash of a valid or illegitimate failure by the government to regulate and reform, are a growing concern among political economists. The consensus in the literature is that populism poses a threat to liberal institutions, but there is less consensus on the channel of that influence. This paper contributes to this literature by empirically investigating the specific impact of populism on liberal institutions using a decomposition of the Fraser Economic Freedom of the World Index using a random effects model. The dataset spans 24 years, from 1990 to 2014, for 171 parliamentary elections from 37 democratic nations. I find that populism, as measured by far-right or far-left parties and European Union skepticism, reduces the overall size of government and the extent of government regulation, as measured by a decomposition of the Frasier Economic Freedom of the World Index. Far-left parties also induce more international trade, while far-right parties induce more deregulation. Populism, however, does tend to erode the quality of legal systems and property rights. Depending on political and economic circumstances, this paper finds that the effect of populism on liberal institutions appears to require more nuance than the consensus view.
Projects
"Across State Line Gas Prices"
This script uses the "BeautifulSoup" package in python to scrap gas price data from Kentucky, Tennessee, and Virgina from Gasbuddy.com. The idea behind such a project was to determine if gas stations absorbed a larger proportion of gas taxes when they have to compete across the boarder with states who have lower gas taxes. In the summer of 2016 Virgina was considering to repeal the state gas tax for a short time because of high gas prices. This legislation would have been similar to Maryland's legislation a few months earlier. Virgina would not pass this legislation making the project temporary dead.
This script uses the "BeautifulSoup" package in python to scrap gas price data from Kentucky, Tennessee, and Virgina from Gasbuddy.com. The idea behind such a project was to determine if gas stations absorbed a larger proportion of gas taxes when they have to compete across the boarder with states who have lower gas taxes. In the summer of 2016 Virgina was considering to repeal the state gas tax for a short time because of high gas prices. This legislation would have been similar to Maryland's legislation a few months earlier. Virgina would not pass this legislation making the project temporary dead.
